The Gujarat model of development - a summary.

There have recently been several good articles discussing and critiquing the "Gujarat model of development", which has become a key battleground in this election. The discussion centres around theoretical and empirical questions, relies on analysis of data provided by government and NGO sources, and can appear quite complex. However the main conclusions seem to be quite simple. Below is an attempt to summarise these conclusions as briefly and accurately as possible. The original articles are all listed below.

1) Gujarat performs well by some economic indicators. However, almost always, it performed well by these indicators for decades before the BJP came to power. Infrastructure, for example, was already good, and Gross State Product (GSP) was already high. In general, the performance under BJP rule followed the trends of earlier performance. Projection based on earlier data is not an exact science and so there is room to present these findings in different ways; but the overwhelming conclusion seems to be that where Gujarat performs well, this continues earlier trends, and Gujarat's trajectory is comparable to, or weaker than, that of other states such as Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra.

2) Even by some traditional indicators of economic performance, Gujarat's performance is often dwarfed by other Indian states. Also, Gujarat's increasing Gross State Product (GSP) has been accompanied by spiralling per capita debt. This is connected with the fact that public money and other public resources - notably land - have often been generously offered as "sweeteners" to encourage investment in the state.

3) On the basis of human development indicators, such as levels of malnutrition, sex ratio, and infant mortality, Gujarat's performance is often mediocre or poor. This seems consistent with the fact that Gujarat's development has been geared towards big business and encouraging investment. Other casualties of this development strategy have been labour rights and the environment, with Gujarat topping the list for some of the most polluted regions in the country. Land allocation to industry has displaced many farmers, fishermen, pastoralists, and agricultural workers, with those displaced often belonging to marginalised groups such as Dalits and Adivasis.

4) Although the Gujarat model has seen mixed success at best, it attracts some strong support. The support appears to be driven by:

• a well-constructed propaganda drive by Modi's powerful and vast PR machine, whose operation and financing is far from transparent. This machine has worked by (i) selecting some figures and ignoring others; (ii) choosing carefully how to present figures, for example without providing contextual information on other similar states, or historical performance pre-dating BJP rule; (iii) sometimes fiddling the data directly, for example presenting pledges of investment as actual investment (it has taken RTI queries to get some of the true data).
• the vocal support of sections of the wealthy and business communities which have been served well by the Gujarat approach, benefitting directly from the transfer of public wealth to private hands; 
• sections of the new middle-class in Gujarat with an aggressively neoliberal perspective, who see GSP growth as the only indicator of development which matters, even if it is accompanied by high levels of inequality, poverty and malnutrition. 

References

A Look In The Mirror, Maitreesh Ghatak and Sanchari Roy, Outlook, March 31, 2014.
The Gujarat Model of Development: What would it do to the Indian Economy?, Rohini Hensman, EPW, March 15, 2014.
Decoding Gujarat, parts 1 and 2, Hemantkumar Shah, The Statesman, April 4, 2014.
‘Development’ and the Indian General Elections, Subir Sinha, SOAS blogs, April 9, 2014.
BJP’s money-festo - Modi-festo's Understanding of Environment, Rohit Prajapati, SACW, 8 April.
Gujarat's development pre-dates Modi considerably, Reetika Khera, NDTV blogs, April 8, 2014.

India 2014 - tactical voting to save democracy (two short videos)

With voting beginning tomorrow, a key question is: how do we minimise the strength of a Modi-led BJP/NDA government or even stop it? There are many constituencies where the majority will vote against fascism, but an NDA candidate will win. The answer is quite simple: if you agree that a Modi-led government will be a serious blow for democracy, and if preserving democracy is the first priority, then it may sometimes be necessary to vote for the strongest non-NDA candidate, despite deep ideological differences and differences of principle. At the very least, Congress supporters may need to vote for AAP and vice versa depending on the local dynamics in their constituency. To put it bluntly, this is not the time for party loyalty. This line will be deeply unpopular with some people who oppose Modi... But it has to be said.

English:


Hindi:

Modiji and friends quiz (part 1)

1) Who said about whom: "In any free country, a person like him would be shot dead"? (answer.)

Nathuram Godse's brother Gopal Godse, co-conspirator in Gandhi's murder, said this about Gandhi. In his last interview in 2000 he said, "In any free country, a person like [Gandhi] would be shot dead". He also said, "All the [Godse] brothers were in the RSS. Nathuram, Dattatreya, myself and Govind. You can say we grew up in the RSS rather than in our home. It was like a family to us... He has said in his statement that he left the RSS. He said it because [Madhav Sadashiv] Golwalkar and the RSS were in a lot of trouble after the murder of Gandhi. But he did not leave the RSS."

2) Who has a 56 inch chest? (answer.)

Almost certainly not Narendra Modi. A 56 inch chest is apparently size XXXXXL and most shops and size guides don't go up to this size at all. He'd need a good tailor. If he does have a chest this size, he should probably consider vegetarianism and some beauty consciousness.

3) If Scottish-island-owning godman Baba Ramdev sticks to his claim that he will meet 50 crore (500 million) people in 2 years, how many people will he have to meet per day? (answer.)

About 684,000 people. Rather more than the entire population of Kochi. But then he is a great man. He can do it.

4) Whose self-declared goal is: "qualifying and fitting our boys for the game of killing masses of men with the ambition of winning victory with the best possible causalities [sic] of dead and wounded while causing the utmost possible to the adversary..."? (answer.)

The Bhonsala Military School praised by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat who said "military schools run under the aegis of Hindutva institutions are the need of the hour".

5) Which of these is VHP leader Pravin Togadia's favourite person: Asaram Bapu, Swami Aseemanand or Maya Kodnani? (answer.)

Hard to say. The godman facing charges of sexual assault against a minor, the RSS worker who has admitted to various terrorist acts and the convicted mass murderer are all Hindu leaders facing persecution for Togadia. See my previous blog post on the family.

6) What links V. D. Savarkar and Nathuram Godse to the Malegaon blasts? (answer.)

Apart from the obvious ideological and historical links? Probably many things, including Himani Savarkar, Godse's niece married to V. D. Savarkar's nephew (they like to keep it in the family). She is founder of Abhinav Bharat, the splinter group linked to several acts of saffron terror. She has also said "We must declare ourselves a Hindu rashtra where everyone is a Hindu. Anyone who isn't should be declared a second-class citizen and denied voting rights."

7) Who said "If Modi works 16 hours, people will ask why he doesn't work 18 hours. People expect a lot from Narendra Modi." (answer.)

You guessed it! Narendra Modi himself in an interview with Urdu Weekly Nai Duniya. He likes referring to himself in the third person.

8) Who said: "It is everybody's knowledge that this [Gujarat] government has been reaping very rich political dividends, since last 12 years, by keeping the glow of encounter cases alive in the sky of Gujarat"? (answer.)

This is the flowery prose of jailed supercop and former loyal soldier of Modi, D.G. Vanzara in his resignation letter.

9) Which Harvard alumnus said: "make learning of Sanskrit and singing of Vande Mataram mandatory, and declare India a Hindu Rashtra in which non-Hindus can vote only if they proudly acknowledge that their ancestors were Hindus"? (answer.)

Modi-loving BJP politician Subramanian Swami. He has said a lot more than this.

10) Who did Modi-bhakts in comment-land say the following about? "THIS RELIC OF A CHAP", "he seems have plan of sabotage with snake nitish", "His time has gone, he failed", "...like a spoiled child all the time", "CRAZY OLD MAN... GROW UP TAKE SOME VIGRA PILLS", "extremely selfish on his part". (answer.)

The grand old man of BJP politics, L. K. Advani himself (these were all comments on various newspaper articles - you can find the phrases easily by googling them). Advani wanted to contest the upcoming election from Bhopal, not Gandhinagar - the BJP gave in, after the intervention of the RSS. Still, how betrayed he must feel after all his hard work creating a national party out of the BJP via the Ayodhya dispute.

11) What links Amit Shah, facing charges of murder and being head of an extortion syndicate; Sahara chief Subrata Roy, currently in jail for fraud; Asaram Bapu, facing charges of sexual assault against a minor; and BS Yeddyurappa, still facing corruption charges? (answer.)

Probably many things link these people. But Hindutva ideologue and so-called top lawyer Ram Jethmalani has represented all of them.

12) Who believes in an immediate death penalty for corruption and adultery without scope for a mercy petition? (answer.)

It's super-rich godman Baba Ramdev again. He said: "We want a law that seeks death penalty for corruption, adultery, rape and dowry. The law should be such that the capital punishment is awarded immediately to the guilty and there should not be any scope for mercy petitions."

A safe seat

After a desperate search Leaderji finally finds a safe seat.

The Modi wave

What is the Modi wave? Physicists are searching for new theories to explain it. Is it connected with the hand pointing skywards? Is Leaderji on it, in it or under it? Could it be an electromagnetic wave heading harmlessly into the distance, at most hitting an atom to cause short-lived excitement?

No one knows the exact answers, but most experts think it is most like an ocean wave causing a prolonged disturbance as it heads for shore. They think Leaderji is riding the wave, but are unsure how stably he is standing. If it is an ocean wave, then it needs wind to drive it, and they have identified a powerful wind machine providing this: a virtual 3D Leaderji in 53 locations (for a few million dollars); 200 LED-screen trucks traversing UP with the soothing message 'Modi aane wala hai'; chai pe charcha - with the small risk of some chai-stains ending on the Leaderji-faced tea cups.

But such gusts are not enough to whip up a wave: steady wind over a wide area is needed. The experts have now found armies of latest-technology-powered mini wind generators. These whirr into action in the ancient kingdoms of comment-land and twitterstan: the nation is facing a plague of "spineless blood sucking congie leeches", Kejriwal is a "USA chamcha with naxalite ideas", Sagarika Ghose is a bitch, that too a smelly one. But Leaderji "gives us hope", writes Ananth. Prasad gets poetic: "Life is not worth living without a lofty dream to pursue". Madhav is "gonna stand for Modi till death".

Thus the mini-winds which start life in twitterstan and comment-land journey to the sea. Fuelled, the mighty wave gathers pace, picking up debris as it moves. A Yeddy falls off but is later spotted back in the foam. A Paswan jumps into the wave just in time nearly missing it as it passes. There's some inevitable friction as battling cousins realise there may no longer be space for two on the wave. The debris is now so great it seems you need a ticket to be part of it.

That's the current state of knowledge. Physicists do not yet know the end of this story. Does the wave continue to grow and proudly reach the shore? Does it break too early? Could Leaderji fall off?

The family

The family is coming together, sensing they have a real shot at power in the centre.

VHP president Pravin Togadia always has a lot to say. Some Parivar members were unhappy with Modi's more cautious tone as BJP prime ministerial candidate. But Togadia got the picture, tweeting: "Let him add secular votes... We are ONE & the same. Nation needs him". For Togadia, Asaram Bapu, currently in jail charged with sexual assault of a minor is "a real saint" . Here's how Togadia sees mass murderer Maya Kodnani, sentenced to 28 years in jail for orchestrating the killing of 97 people in the Naroda Patiya massacre: she "stood up for her religion... she is the daughter of 100 crore [1 billion] Hindus. We stand with her". And for Togadia, the arrest of Swami Aseemanand, in jail having confessed to a number of terrorist acts, was a government conspiracy against Hindu leaders.

Disgraced "supercop" D. G. Vanzara, in jail since 2007 for his role in overseeing a number of fake encounters, has strong feelings. On Modi and his right-hand man Amit Shah: "I used to adore Modi like a god. But I am sorry to state that my God could not rise to occasion under the evil influence of Amit Shah who usurped his eyes and ears and has been misguding him". Vanzara apparently also adored Asaram Bapu, whose arrest was the last straw for him.

Modi may not have been the RSS' first choice for Sangh Parivar prime ministerial candidate. But RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat wanted to dispel any suggestion of infighting, saying Modi "is my friend", and "if we stand together no one can stop us". Indeed, the Parivar stands together: in March 2013 Bhagwat and Togadia jointly launched the "Hindu Ahead" (हिंदू ही आगे) movement in Ahmedabad. Swami Aseemanand, in jail for terrorist atrocities, has claimed that RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat approved the terror attacks, and that Modi said to him "now it has been decided that I will be CM, let me come and then I will do your work. Rest Easy."

Modi has surrounded himself with the best. Amit Shah, implicated in fake encounters, facing charges of murder, and being the head of an extortion syndicate, and director of the illegal surveillance of a young woman in late 2009, in the so-called snoopgate scandal is Modi's right hand man. Maya Kodnani was Modi's close aide and was promoted to minister after her starring role in the Gujarat pogroms of 2002. Modi's fanbase goes wider. Convicted mass murderer Babu Bajrangi felt his mentor Togadia betrayed him; but Modi "made everything all right, otherwise who would have had the strength?" Super-rich godman and close associate of the Sangh Parivar, Baba Ramdev, declared before Modi's selection that if Modi was not declared PM candidate he would have to rethink his support for the BJP. He also feels that "Modi alone can give stable government to the nation". Ramdev is also a fan of Asaram Bapu, declaring him to be "Guru Ghantal" (the guru of gurus - the one with all the answers.)

This is only a small part of the family. They hope to take over very soon unless we stop them.

Human sexuality and the human computer

I remember Shakuntala Devi appearing on Doordarshan in my childhood, generally accorded the status of a national icon for her astonishing feats of mental arithmetic. She could multiply, add, and extract roots of numbers of frightening size in seconds and without pen or paper. It seems likely that she - like other savants with similar abilities - related to numbers as poetry, as something to feel and experience rather than cage and manipulate. Although no doubt intended as a compliment, her nickname "the human computer" now sounds cruel, hinting that her special relationship with numbers might diminish her as a human being. But computers have not, so far, had much of interest to say about human sexuality. Whereas Shakuntala Devi on the other hand called for the decriminalisation of homosexuality in India. In her book "The World of Homosexuals", written in 1977 at the height of her fame, she interviewed a number of gay men, and ended by advocating "nothing less than full and complete acceptance... not tolerance and not sympathy". She stressed that her position was based on empathy and common sense.

In 2009, a full 32 years later, the Delhi High Court agreed. In a landmark judgement the Court declared a colonial era law, namely Section 377 of the Indian Penal Code criminalising gay sex, as discriminatory and unconstitutional. In December 2013, about eight months after Shakuntala Devi's death, the Supreme Court of India reversed this decision, to loud applause from the religious right. Hindu, Muslim, Christian and Jewish bigots chorused their satisfaction at the Supreme Court's contradictory and confused judgement in which it decided that "carnal intercourse against the order of nature" was a meaningful category, referred to the LGBT community in India as a "miniscule fraction of the country's population", and claimed that the harassment of this community by the police using this law was a misuse of Section 377 rather than its natural consequence.

There will of course be another swing of the legal pendulum eventually and Section 377 will go the way of other junk - though if the forces of Hindutva come to power in the coming general election, this may take a while. What is of no doubt is that in the big scheme of things, Shakuntala Devi will remain an icon, while this Supreme Court judgement will just look silly.